The Consensus: Can He Do It?

The deck is stacked against President Barack Obama. No leader in the last 50 years ever successfully led the charge and delivered significant coverage or cost reform. Enormously powerful special interest lobbies stand in his way. Political scandal is never far away. Deep rooted and fierce ideological opposition exists not only in the public but within the legislature itself. 

The experts think he has the best chance at passing coverage reform, and he should not attempt to reform costs and coverage at the same time. They agree any significant, comprehensive and effective change will happen incrementally, one step at a time. 

The political will to reform costs simply doesn’t exist, largely due to American culture and misunderstanding of the factors leading to exploding health care costs. To change this, Obama has to transform the entire conversation—something few agree he can do. 

Timing seems to be against Obama. The financial crisis, tensions abroad, the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the threat of another possible flu pandemic all distract his attention from health care reform. 

Avoiding scandal is another matter. His administration managed to quell discontent surround Tom Daschle's departure, but experts disagree whether that departure could mark disaster for the entire effort. 

The question of whether he can help push a bill through Congress and garner enough political will remains to be answered. Timing is an element all three experts agree is crucial. The longer he waits to introduce legislation, the less likely the bill will pass. One expert said if it isn't on the agenda by the end of the summer session, Obama can “kiss any kind of reform goodbye.”

Given all of the obstacles and potential pitfalls, not to mention the fact he asked the American people to evaluate his presidency on progress with health care (along with the economy and education), the possibility of seriously damaging his reelection chances is real. 

One thing is clear. The longer he waits to start aggressively pushing for health care reform the greater his chances of failure. And the clock is ticking.